Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lugano win with a probability of 44.5%. A win for Vaduz had a probability of 28.95% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lugano win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.91%) and 2-0 (8.2%). The likeliest Vaduz win was 0-1 (8.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.6%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood.
