Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Basel win with a probability of 46.07%. A win for Lugano had a probability of 30.32% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Basel win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.03%) and 2-0 (6.87%). The likeliest Lugano win was 1-2 (7.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.82%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood.
