Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Casa Pia win with a probability of 66.19%. A draw had a probability of 21.3% and a win for Trofense had a probability of 12.49%.
The most likely scoreline for a Casa Pia win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.88%) and 2-1 (9.2%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.86%), while for a Trofense win it was 0-1 (5.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Casa Pia in this match.
-0.06) 
0.04) 
