Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tondela win with a probability of 39.54%. A win for Boavista had a probability of 34.23% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tondela win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.52%) and 2-0 (6.8%). The likeliest Boavista win was 0-1 (9.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.47%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood.