Although Tondela have everything to fight for this weekend, they just lack the quality needed to win even a crucial match like this.
They are on an extensive run without a clean sheet and it is unlikely that will change this weekend, considering the firepower of Petar Musa up front for Boavista.
Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tondela win with a probability of 39.54%. A win for Boavista had a probability of 34.23% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tondela win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.52%) and 2-0 (6.8%). The likeliest Boavista win was 0-1 (9.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.47%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood.
-0.59) 
0.24) 
