Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 37.67%. A win for Tondela had a probability of 35.92% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.27%) and 2-0 (6.46%). The likeliest Tondela win was 0-1 (9.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.55%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Nacional in this match.