We said: Porto 3-0 Tondela
While Tondela will be looking to cause the first major upset of the 2022-23 Portuguese campaign, they have struggled for results against Porto, losing each of their last 13 meetings since 2016.
Conceicao's men head into the weekend with a new-look squad, but they are capable of coming away with the desired results. Therefore, we predict a one-sided contest with the Dragoes claiming the title in 90 minutes against the CDT Auriverdes, who are winless in 11 consecutive games across all competitions.
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Porto win with a probability of 80.38%. A draw has a probability of 12.8% and a win for Tondela has a probability of 6.85%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win is 2-0 with a probability of 11.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 3-0 (10.96%) and 1-0 (8.51%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (6.01%), while for a Tondela win it is 0-1 (2.16%).