While a win will secure Vizela's survival, a draw could see them move six points above 16th-placed Tondela in the relegation playoff spot. Maritimo are also in a heated race for a top-half finish this season and we expect them to take the game to the hosts. We predict the sides will cancel out each other's efforts and settle for a point apiece.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vizela win with a probability of 40.02%. A win for Maritimo had a probability of 33.02% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vizela win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.45%) and 2-0 (7.2%). The likeliest Maritimo win was 0-1 (9.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.79%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
-0.3) 
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