Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 82.31%. A draw had a probability of 11.7% and a win for Maria da Fonte had a probability of 5.96%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-3 (11.38%) and 0-4 (8.22%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.53%), while for a Maria da Fonte win it was 1-0 (1.92%). The actual scoreline of 0-5 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Arouca would win this match.
0.07) 
-0.11) 
