SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rio Ave win with a probability of 41.49%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 32.2% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rio Ave win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.72%) and 2-0 (7.3%). The likeliest Arouca win was 0-1 (8.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.51%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Rio Ave in this match.
| Result | ||
| Rio Ave | Draw | Arouca |
41.49% ( -0.02) | 26.31% ( 0.06) | 32.2% ( -0.04) |
| Both teams to score 52.4% ( -0.19) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.84% ( -0.24) | 52.16% ( 0.24) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.12% ( -0.21) | 73.87% ( 0.2) |
| Rio Ave Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.16% ( -0.12) | 24.84% ( 0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.56% ( -0.16) | 59.43% ( 0.16) |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.71% ( -0.15) | 30.28% ( 0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.54% ( -0.18) | 66.45% ( 0.17) |
| Score Analysis |
| Rio Ave | Draw | Arouca |
| 1-0 @ 10.47% ( 0.06) 2-1 @ 8.72% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 7.3% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 4.05% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 3.39% ( -0)3-2 @ 2.42% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 1.41% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 1.18% ( -0)Other @ 2.56% Total : 41.48% | 1-1 @ 12.51% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 7.52% ( 0.07)2-2 @ 5.21% ( -0.03)3-3 @ 0.96% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.31% | 0-1 @ 8.99% ( 0.05) 1-2 @ 7.48% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 5.37% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 2.98% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 2.14% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.07% ( -0.02)Other @ 3.18% Total : 32.2% |
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