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A
Primeira Liga | Gameweek 5
Sep 13, 2024 at 8.15pm UK
Estadio Municipal de Arouca
SL

Arouca
0 - 3
Sporting Lisbon


Sylla (54'), Fontan (60'), N'Diaye (90+7')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Goncalves (24'), Gyokeres (73' pen.), Trincao (80')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Rio Ave 1-0 Arouca
Sunday, September 1 at 6pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Sporting Lisbon 2-0 Porto
Saturday, August 31 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga

We said: Arouca 1-3 Sporting Lisbon

Despite the hiatus, any other outcome but a Sporting victory will be surprising, despite the threat of the international break possibly causing a dip in momentum. Regardless, Amorim's side should dispatch a struggling Arouca to continue their perfect start to this season's title defence. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 68.6%. A draw had a probability of 18.1% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 13.25%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.72%) and 0-1 (9.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.51%), while for an Arouca win it was 2-1 (3.82%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.

Result
AroucaDrawSporting Lisbon
13.25% (0.083 0.08) 18.15% (0.056999999999999 0.06) 68.6% (-0.14 -0.14)
Both teams to score 53.2% (0.038000000000004 0.04)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
61.63% (-0.074000000000005 -0.07)38.37% (0.071999999999996 0.07)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
39.34% (-0.078999999999994 -0.08)60.65% (0.077999999999996 0.08)
Arouca Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
59.22% (0.076999999999998 0.08)40.78% (-0.079000000000001 -0.08)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
22.64% (0.07 0.07)77.35% (-0.070999999999998 -0.07)
Sporting Lisbon Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
89.82% (-0.055000000000007 -0.06)10.18% (0.054 0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
66.56% (-0.125 -0.13)33.43% (0.124 0.12)
Score Analysis
    Arouca 13.25%
    Sporting Lisbon 68.6%
    Draw 18.15%
AroucaDrawSporting Lisbon
2-1 @ 3.82% (0.021 0.02)
1-0 @ 3.72% (0.021 0.02)
2-0 @ 1.67% (0.013 0.01)
3-2 @ 1.3% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
3-1 @ 1.14% (0.008 0.01)
Other @ 1.6%
Total : 13.25%
1-1 @ 8.51% (0.026999999999999 0.03)
2-2 @ 4.36% (0.013 0.01)
0-0 @ 4.15% (0.014 0.01)
3-3 @ 0.99% (0.003 0)
Other @ 0.14%
Total : 18.15%
0-2 @ 10.83% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
1-2 @ 9.72% (0.0089999999999986 0.01)
0-1 @ 9.48% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-3 @ 8.25% (-0.029 -0.03)
1-3 @ 7.4% (-0.011 -0.01)
0-4 @ 4.71% (-0.026999999999999 -0.03)
1-4 @ 4.23% (-0.015 -0.01)
2-3 @ 3.32% (0.0019999999999998 0)
0-5 @ 2.15% (-0.018 -0.02)
1-5 @ 1.93% (-0.012 -0.01)
2-4 @ 1.9% (-0.0029999999999999 -0)
Other @ 4.67%
Total : 68.6%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Rio Ave 1-0 Arouca
Sunday, September 1 at 6pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Arouca 1-0 Nacional
Sunday, August 25 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Moreirense 3-1 Arouca
Sunday, August 18 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Arouca 0-1 Guimaraes
Monday, August 12 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Arouca 0-2 Viseu
Saturday, August 3 at 11am in Club Friendlies 3
Last Game: Rio Ave 3-2 Arouca
Saturday, July 20 at 11am in Club Friendlies 3
Last Game: Sporting Lisbon 2-0 Porto
Saturday, August 31 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Farense 0-5 Sporting Lisbon
Friday, August 23 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Nacional 1-6 Sporting Lisbon
Saturday, August 17 at 6pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Sporting Lisbon 3-1 Rio Ave
Friday, August 9 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Sporting Lisbon 3-4 Porto
Saturday, August 3 at 8.15pm in Portuguese Super Cup
Last Game: Sporting Lisbon 3-0 Athletic Bilbao
Saturday, July 27 at 7.30pm in Club Friendlies 3


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