SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 49.38%. A win for SC Farense had a probability of 25.85% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.5%) and 0-2 (8.65%). The likeliest SC Farense win was 1-0 (7.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.76%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Arouca in this match.
| Result | ||
| SC Farense | Draw | Arouca |
25.85% ( 0.65) | 24.77% ( 0.24) | 49.38% ( -0.89) |
| Both teams to score 53.37% ( -0.13) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.94% ( -0.47) | 49.06% ( 0.47) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.86% ( -0.43) | 71.14% ( 0.43) |
| SC Farense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.63% ( 0.29) | 33.37% ( -0.29) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.01% ( 0.31) | 69.99% ( -0.31) |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.1% ( -0.55) | 19.89% ( 0.55) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.98% ( -0.89) | 52.02% ( 0.89) |
| Score Analysis |
| SC Farense | Draw | Arouca |
| 1-0 @ 7.29% ( 0.19) 2-1 @ 6.46% ( 0.11)2-0 @ 4% ( 0.14)3-1 @ 2.36% ( 0.06)3-2 @ 1.91% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 1.46% ( 0.06)Other @ 2.38% Total : 25.85% | 1-1 @ 11.76% ( 0.12) 0-0 @ 6.64% ( 0.13)2-2 @ 5.21% ( 0)3-3 @ 1.03% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.12% Total : 24.76% | 0-1 @ 10.71% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 9.5% ( -0.07)0-2 @ 8.65% ( -0.13)1-3 @ 5.11% ( -0.13)0-3 @ 4.66% ( -0.15)2-3 @ 2.81% ( -0.05)1-4 @ 2.06% ( -0.09)0-4 @ 1.88% ( -0.1)2-4 @ 1.13% ( -0.04)Other @ 2.85% Total : 49.37% |
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