Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 42.46%. A win for Nacional had a probability of 31.41% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.84%) and 2-0 (7.46%). The likeliest Nacional win was 0-1 (8.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.42%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Arouca in this match.
Result | ||
Arouca | Draw | Nacional |
42.46% (![]() | 26.13% (![]() | 31.41% (![]() |
Both teams to score 52.67% (![]() |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
48.33% (![]() | 51.67% (![]() |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
26.55% (![]() | 73.45% (![]() |
Arouca Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
75.87% (![]() | 24.13% (![]() |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
41.57% (![]() | 58.43% (![]() |
Nacional Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
69.42% (![]() | 30.57% (![]() |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
33.19% (![]() | 66.8% (![]() |
Score Analysis |
Arouca | Draw | Nacional |
1-0 @ 10.48% (![]() 2-1 @ 8.84% ( ![]() 2-0 @ 7.46% ( ![]() 3-1 @ 4.19% ( ![]() 3-0 @ 3.53% ( ![]() 3-2 @ 2.48% ( ![]() 4-1 @ 1.49% ( ![]() 4-0 @ 1.26% ( ![]() Other @ 2.73% Total : 42.45% | 1-1 @ 12.42% (![]() 0-0 @ 7.38% ( ![]() 2-2 @ 5.24% ( ![]() 3-3 @ 0.98% ( ![]() Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.12% | 0-1 @ 8.74% (![]() 1-2 @ 7.37% ( ![]() 0-2 @ 5.18% ( ![]() 1-3 @ 2.91% ( ![]() 2-3 @ 2.07% ( ![]() 0-3 @ 2.05% ( ![]() Other @ 3.1% Total : 31.41% |
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