SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 42.46%. A win for Nacional had a probability of 31.41% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.84%) and 2-0 (7.46%). The likeliest Nacional win was 0-1 (8.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.42%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Arouca in this match.
| Result | ||
| Arouca | Draw | Nacional |
42.46% ( -0.12) | 26.13% ( -0.21) | 31.41% ( 0.33) |
| Both teams to score 52.67% ( 0.79) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.33% ( 0.96) | 51.67% ( -0.96) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.55% ( 0.82) | 73.45% ( -0.83) |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.87% ( 0.36) | 24.13% ( -0.36) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.57% ( 0.51) | 58.43% ( -0.52) |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.42% ( 0.71) | 30.57% ( -0.72) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.19% ( 0.84) | 66.8% ( -0.84) |
| Score Analysis |
| Arouca | Draw | Nacional |
| 1-0 @ 10.48% ( -0.29) 2-1 @ 8.84% ( 0.03)2-0 @ 7.46% ( -0.13)3-1 @ 4.19% ( 0.06)3-0 @ 3.53% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 2.48% ( 0.08)4-1 @ 1.49% ( 0.04)4-0 @ 1.26% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.73% Total : 42.45% | 1-1 @ 12.42% ( -0.1) 0-0 @ 7.38% ( -0.29)2-2 @ 5.24% ( 0.12)3-3 @ 0.98% ( 0.05)Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.12% | 0-1 @ 8.74% ( -0.16) 1-2 @ 7.37% ( 0.09)0-2 @ 5.18% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 2.91% ( 0.09)2-3 @ 2.07% ( 0.09)0-3 @ 2.05% ( 0.04)Other @ 3.1% Total : 31.41% |
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