SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 66.93%. A draw had a probability of 19.4% and a win for Vitoria de Guimaraes had a probability of 13.69%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.92%) and 2-1 (9.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.2%), while for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win it was 0-1 (4.33%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Benfica | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
66.93% ( -0.33) | 19.37% ( 0.14) | 13.69% ( 0.19) |
| Both teams to score 50.13% ( 0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.98% ( -0.21) | 43.02% ( 0.21) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.58% ( -0.21) | 65.42% ( 0.21) |
| Benfica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.07% ( -0.15) | 11.92% ( 0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 62.72% ( -0.32) | 37.28% ( 0.33) |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 56.92% ( 0.15) | 43.08% ( -0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 20.64% ( 0.12) | 79.36% ( -0.12) |
| Score Analysis |
| Benfica | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
| 2-0 @ 11.61% ( -0.03) 1-0 @ 10.92% ( 0.04)2-1 @ 9.78% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 8.23% ( -0.07)3-1 @ 6.93% ( -0.03)4-0 @ 4.38% ( -0.06)4-1 @ 3.69% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 2.92% ( -0)5-0 @ 1.86% ( -0.04)5-1 @ 1.57% ( -0.03)4-2 @ 1.55% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.48% Total : 66.92% | 1-1 @ 9.2% ( 0.07) 0-0 @ 5.14% ( 0.05)2-2 @ 4.12% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.92% Total : 19.37% | 0-1 @ 4.33% ( 0.06) 1-2 @ 3.87% ( 0.04)0-2 @ 1.82% ( 0.03)2-3 @ 1.16% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 1.09% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.43% Total : 13.69% |
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