Having lost just one of their five league games this season, Casa Pia have proven to be a tough team to beat, and we think that they will do enough to take a point from Saturday's meeting with a Guimaraes side who are low on confidence following a three-game losing run.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Casa Pia win with a probability of 36.37%. A win for Vitoria de Guimaraes had a probability of 35.8% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Casa Pia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.83%) and 2-0 (6.62%). The likeliest Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 0-1 (10.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.11%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
0.15) 
-0.16) 
