Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 59.54%. A draw had a probability of 22.8% and a win for Rabo Peixe had a probability of 17.63%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.31%) and 2-1 (9.75%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.83%), while for a Rabo Peixe win it was 0-1 (6.02%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Nacional in this match.
0.29) 
-0.35) 
