Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 46.41%. A win for Sporting Covilha had a probability of 28.14% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.24%) and 0-2 (8.17%). The likeliest Sporting Covilha win was 1-0 (7.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.1%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.
0.34) 
-0.03) 
