Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 50.33%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for Nacional had a probability of 24.71%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.5%) and 2-0 (9.12%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.87%), while for a Nacional win it was 0-1 (7.42%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Gil Vicente would win this match.
0.19) 
-0.21) 
