Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portimonense win with a probability of 41.8%. A win for Nacional had a probability of 32.19% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portimonense win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.79%) and 0-2 (7.24%). The likeliest Nacional win was 1-0 (8.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.36%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood.
0.2) 
-0.32) 
