Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Shakhtar Donetsk win with a probability of 66.79%. A draw had a probability of 19.8% and a win for Mariupol had a probability of 13.42%.
The most likely scoreline for a Shakhtar Donetsk win was 0-2 with a probability of 12.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (11.81%) and 1-2 (9.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.42%), while for a Mariupol win it was 1-0 (4.57%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Shakhtar Donetsk would win this match.
