Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vorskla Poltava win with a probability of 44.57%. A win for Mariupol had a probability of 29.6% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vorskla Poltava win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.06%) and 0-2 (7.86%). The likeliest Mariupol win was 1-0 (8.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.28%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Vorskla Poltava in this match.