Nacional
2 - 1
Progreso

Garcia (18'), Vecino (45')
Amaral (52'), Vinicius (54'), Mendez (81'), Fernandez (81'), Gonzalez (81')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Silva (76')

Data Analysis

Lineups

Match Stats

Player Stats

Coverage of the Uruguayan Primera Division clash between Nacional and Progreso.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 44.06%. A win for Progreso had a probability of 28.72% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.72%) and 2-0 (8.38%). The likeliest Progreso win was 0-1 (9.44%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.83%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.

Result
Nacional	Draw	Progreso
44.06%	27.22%	28.72%

Both teams to score 48.08%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

43.03%

56.96%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

22.13%

77.87%

Nacional Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.31%

25.69%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.39%

60.61%

Progreso Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

64.7%

35.3%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.94%

72.06%

Score Analysis

Nacional 44.05%

Progreso 28.72%

Draw 27.22%

Nacional	Draw	Progreso
1-0 @ 12.32% 2-1 @ 8.72% 2-0 @ 8.38% 3-1 @ 3.95% 3-0 @ 3.79% 3-2 @ 2.06% 4-1 @ 1.34% 4-0 @ 1.29% Other @ 2.21% Total : 44.05%	1-1 @ 12.83% 0-0 @ 9.07% 2-2 @ 4.54% Other @ 0.78% Total : 27.22%	0-1 @ 9.44% 1-2 @ 6.68% 0-2 @ 4.92% 1-3 @ 2.32% 0-3 @ 1.71% 2-3 @ 1.58% Other @ 2.07% Total : 28.72%