SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 50.66%. A draw had a probability of 26.6% and a win for Montevideo Wanderers had a probability of 22.71%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.26%) and 2-1 (9.02%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.38%), while for a Montevideo Wanderers win it was 0-1 (8.5%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Penarol | Draw | Montevideo Wanderers |
| 50.66% | 26.63% | 22.71% |
| Both teams to score 44.86% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.36% | 58.64% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.81% | 79.19% |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.71% | 23.29% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 42.78% | 57.22% |
| Montevideo Wanderers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.48% | 41.52% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 21.98% | 78.02% |
| Score Analysis |
| Penarol | Draw | Montevideo Wanderers |
| 1-0 @ 14.09% 2-0 @ 10.26% 2-1 @ 9.02% 3-0 @ 4.99% 3-1 @ 4.38% 3-2 @ 1.93% 4-0 @ 1.82% 4-1 @ 1.6% Other @ 2.57% Total : 50.66% | 1-1 @ 12.38% 0-0 @ 9.67% 2-2 @ 3.97% Other @ 0.61% Total : 26.63% | 0-1 @ 8.5% 1-2 @ 5.44% 0-2 @ 3.74% 1-3 @ 1.6% 2-3 @ 1.16% 0-3 @ 1.1% Other @ 1.18% Total : 22.71% |
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