Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Liverpool win with a probability of 46.57%. A win for Progreso had a probability of 26.93% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Liverpool win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.03%) and 0-2 (8.79%). The likeliest Progreso win was 1-0 (8.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.54%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Liverpool would win this match.