Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montevideo Wanderers win with a probability of 36.24%. A win for Progreso had a probability of 36.1% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montevideo Wanderers win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.85%) and 0-2 (6.55%). The likeliest Progreso win was 1-0 (10.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.06%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood.