Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 54.22%. A draw had a probability of 26% and a win for Rentistas had a probability of 19.77%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.34%) and 1-2 (9.06%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.96%), while for a Rentistas win it was 1-0 (7.9%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 15% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Nacional in this match.