Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 51.35%. A draw had a probability of 25.2% and a win for Deportivo Maldonado had a probability of 23.48%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.63%) and 1-2 (9.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.95%), while for a Deportivo Maldonado win it was 1-0 (7.55%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.
