Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a England Women win with a probability of 41.8%. A win for Sweden Women had a probability of 34.85% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a England Women win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.85%) and 2-0 (5.76%). The likeliest Sweden Women win was 1-2 (7.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.4%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that England Women would win this match.

Result
England Women	Draw	Sweden Women
41.8% ( 0)	23.34% ( -0.01)	34.85% ( 0)

Both teams to score 63.57% (

0.04)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

62.02% (

0.05)

37.97% (

-0.05)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

39.76% (

0.05)

60.23% (

-0.06)

England Women Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.39% (

0.02)

18.6% (

-0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50.1% (

0.04)

49.89% (

-0.04)

Sweden Women Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.1% (

0.02)

21.89% (

-0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.85% (

0.04)

55.15% (

-0.04)

Score Analysis

England Women 41.8%

Sweden Women 34.85%

Draw 23.34%

England Women	Draw	Sweden Women
2-1 @ 8.75% ( -0) 1-0 @ 6.85% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 5.76% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 4.91% ( 0) 3-2 @ 3.73% ( 0) 3-0 @ 3.23% ( -0) 4-1 @ 2.06% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.57% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.36% ( 0) Other @ 3.6% Total : 41.8%	1-1 @ 10.4% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 6.65% ( 0) 0-0 @ 4.07% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 1.89% ( 0) Other @ 0.33% Total : 23.34%	1-2 @ 7.9% ( -0) 0-1 @ 6.19% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 4.7% ( -0) 1-3 @ 4% ( 0) 2-3 @ 3.37% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 2.38% ( -0) 1-4 @ 1.52% ( 0) 2-4 @ 1.28% ( 0) 0-4 @ 0.9% ( 0) Other @ 2.62% Total : 34.85%