Ecuador
1 - 1
Brazil

Torres (75')
Valencia (70'), Caicedo (78')
Dominguez (15')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Casemiro (6')
Emerson (1'), Becker (31'), Raphinha (42'), Militao (45+2')
Emerson (20')

Preview

The Match

Brazil will unsurprisingly be the strong favourites to come away with all three points on Thursday, though Ecuador cannot be underestimated having impressed as the 'best of the rest' behind the Selecao and Argentina. Tite has plenty of attacking options to fill the void left by the injured Neymar and their quality in the final third should be enough to help them edge past the hosts in Quito. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brazil win with a probability of 57.75%. A draw had a probability of 24.1% and a win for Ecuador had a probability of 18.16%.

The most likely scoreline for a Brazil win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.57%) and 1-2 (9.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.31%), while for a Ecuador win it was 1-0 (6.75%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood.

Result
Ecuador	Draw	Brazil
18.16%	24.09%	57.75%

Both teams to score 45.52%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

45.57%

54.43%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

24.2%

75.8%

Ecuador Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

55.97%

44.03%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

19.85%

80.14%

Brazil Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.32%

18.68%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

49.98%

50.02%

Score Analysis

Ecuador 18.16%

Brazil 57.74%

Draw 24.08%

Ecuador	Draw	Brazil
1-0 @ 6.75% 2-1 @ 4.64% 2-0 @ 2.77% 3-1 @ 1.27% 3-2 @ 1.07% Other @ 1.66% Total : 18.16%	1-1 @ 11.31% 0-0 @ 8.22% 2-2 @ 3.9% Other @ 0.65% Total : 24.08%	0-1 @ 13.79% 0-2 @ 11.57% 1-2 @ 9.5% 0-3 @ 6.47% 1-3 @ 5.31% 0-4 @ 2.72% 1-4 @ 2.23% 2-3 @ 2.18% 2-4 @ 0.91% 0-5 @ 0.91% Other @ 2.16% Total : 57.74%