Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ethiopia win with a probability of 51.11%. A draw had a probability of 25.7% and a win for Zimbabwe had a probability of 23.15%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ethiopia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.91%) and 2-1 (9.31%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.15%), while for a Zimbabwe win it was 0-1 (7.93%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Ethiopia in this match.
