SM
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Cameroon | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Burkina Faso | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Cape Verde | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Ethiopia | 3 | -4 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ethiopia win with a probability of 48.52%. A draw had a probability of 29.1% and a win for Lesotho had a probability of 22.34%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ethiopia win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.57%) and 2-1 (8.08%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.01%), while for a Lesotho win it was 0-1 (9.95%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ethiopia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Ethiopia | Draw | Lesotho |
48.52% ( 0.01) | 29.14% ( -0.12) | 22.34% ( 0.11) |
| Both teams to score 38.5% ( 0.37) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 33.39% ( 0.41) | 66.61% ( -0.41) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 15% ( 0.28) | 85% ( -0.28) |
| Ethiopia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.04% ( 0.2) | 27.95% ( -0.2) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.42% ( 0.26) | 63.58% ( -0.26) |
| Lesotho Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 53.44% ( 0.36) | 46.56% ( -0.36) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 17.85% ( 0.28) | 82.15% ( -0.27) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ethiopia | Draw | Lesotho |
| 1-0 @ 16.58% ( -0.16) 2-0 @ 10.57% ( -0.04)2-1 @ 8.08% ( 0.05)3-0 @ 4.49% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 3.43% ( 0.04)4-0 @ 1.43% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 1.31% ( 0.03)4-1 @ 1.09% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.51% Total : 48.51% | 0-0 @ 13.01% ( -0.2) 1-1 @ 12.68% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 3.09% ( 0.05)Other @ 0.36% Total : 29.13% | 0-1 @ 9.95% ( -0.05) 1-2 @ 4.85% ( 0.05)0-2 @ 3.8% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 1.24% ( 0.03)0-3 @ 0.97% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.54% Total : 22.34% |
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