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World Cup Qualifying - Europe | Group Stage
Oct 9, 2021 at 2pm UK
LFF Stadium, Vilnius
BN

Lithuania
3 - 1
Bulgaria

Lasickas (18'), Cernych (82', 84')
Vaitkunas (13'), Lasickas (48'), Laukzemis (62'), Novikovas (78')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Despodov (64')
Antov (29'), Vitanov (46'), Yomov (60')

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bulgaria win with a probability of 39.5%. A win for Lithuania had a probability of 32.98% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bulgaria win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.27%) and 0-2 (7.27%). The likeliest Lithuania win was 1-0 (10.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood.

Result
LithuaniaDrawBulgaria
32.98%27.52%39.5%
Both teams to score 48.89%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
43.27%56.73%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
22.32%77.68%
Lithuania Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.93%32.07%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.46%68.54%
Bulgaria Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.97%28.03%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.32%63.68%
Score Analysis
    Lithuania 32.98%
    Bulgaria 39.49%
    Draw 27.52%
LithuaniaDrawBulgaria
1-0 @ 10.22%
2-1 @ 7.39%
2-0 @ 5.81%
3-1 @ 2.8%
3-0 @ 2.2%
3-2 @ 1.78%
Other @ 2.76%
Total : 32.98%
1-1 @ 13%
0-0 @ 8.99%
2-2 @ 4.7%
Other @ 0.83%
Total : 27.52%
0-1 @ 11.43%
1-2 @ 8.27%
0-2 @ 7.27%
1-3 @ 3.51%
0-3 @ 3.08%
2-3 @ 1.99%
1-4 @ 1.12%
0-4 @ 0.98%
Other @ 1.85%
Total : 39.49%

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