Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy win with a probability of 68.85%. A draw had a probability of 25.6% and a win for Bulgaria had a probability of 5.57%.
The most likely scoreline for a Italy win was 1-0 with a probability of 27.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (19.6%) and 3-0 (9.41%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (18.91%), while for a Bulgaria win it was 0-1 (4.27%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood.
