Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Northern Ireland win with a probability of 43.92%. A win for Lithuania had a probability of 29.66% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Northern Ireland win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.91%) and 0-2 (7.97%). The likeliest Lithuania win was 1-0 (8.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.55%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Northern Ireland would win this match.

Result
Lithuania	Draw	Northern Ireland
29.66%	26.41%	43.92%

Both teams to score 50.99%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

46.53%

53.47%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.01%

74.99%

Lithuania Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.26%

32.73%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.71%

69.29%

Northern Ireland Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.8%

24.2%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.47%

58.53%

Score Analysis

Lithuania 29.66%

Northern Ireland 43.91%

Draw 26.41%

Lithuania	Draw	Northern Ireland
1-0 @ 8.85% 2-1 @ 7.01% 2-0 @ 4.94% 3-1 @ 2.61% 3-2 @ 1.85% 3-0 @ 1.84% Other @ 2.57% Total : 29.66%	1-1 @ 12.55% 0-0 @ 7.92% 2-2 @ 4.97% Other @ 0.97% Total : 26.41%	0-1 @ 11.23% 1-2 @ 8.91% 0-2 @ 7.97% 1-3 @ 4.21% 0-3 @ 3.77% 2-3 @ 2.35% 1-4 @ 1.49% 0-4 @ 1.34% Other @ 2.64% Total : 43.91%