Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Poland win with a probability of 67.04%. A draw had a probability of 22% and a win for San Marino had a probability of 10.99%.
The most likely scoreline for a Poland win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (15.34%) and 3-0 (9.07%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (9.77%), while for a San Marino win it was 0-1 (5.41%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Poland would win this match.
