Poland
1 - 1
England

Szymanski (90+2')
Glik (45+3'), Krychowiak (60'), Puchacz (78'), Linetty (79'), Szymanski (90+3')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Kane (72')
Phillips (8'), Maguire (45+3')

Preview

Reaction to World Cup pain outweighs Poland frustration for Gareth Southgate

The Match

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a England win with a probability of 52.69%. A win for Poland had a probability of 24.08% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a England win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.59%) and 0-2 (8.59%). The likeliest Poland win was 2-1 (6.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.89%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood.

Result
Poland	Draw	England
24.08%	23.22%	52.69%

Both teams to score 56.58%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

56.03%

43.97%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

33.65%

66.35%

Poland Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.9%

32.09%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.43%

68.57%

England Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.32%

16.68%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

53.44%

46.56%

Score Analysis

Poland 24.08%

England 52.69%

Draw 23.22%

Poland	Draw	England
2-1 @ 6.19% 1-0 @ 6.09% 2-0 @ 3.46% 3-1 @ 2.35% 3-2 @ 2.1% 3-0 @ 1.31% Other @ 2.59% Total : 24.08%	1-1 @ 10.89% 2-2 @ 5.55% 0-0 @ 5.35% 3-3 @ 1.25% Other @ 0.17% Total : 23.22%	1-2 @ 9.76% 0-1 @ 9.59% 0-2 @ 8.59% 1-3 @ 5.82% 0-3 @ 5.13% 2-3 @ 3.31% 1-4 @ 2.61% 0-4 @ 2.29% 2-4 @ 1.48% 1-5 @ 0.93% Other @ 3.18% Total : 52.69%