Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portugal win with a probability of 67.39%. A draw had a probability of 22.5% and a win for Azerbaijan had a probability of 10.16%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portugal win was 1-0 with a probability of 18.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (16.13%) and 3-0 (9.22%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (10.96%), while for an Azerbaijan win it was 0-1 (5.43%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 18.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Portugal in this match.