Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portugal win with a probability of 41.31%. A win for Serbia had a probability of 33.95% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portugal win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.49%) and 0-2 (6.48%). The likeliest Serbia win was 2-1 (7.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.56%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6% likelihood.