Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a HJK Helsinki win with a probability of 68.99%. A draw had a probability of 19% and a win for IFK Mariehamn had a probability of 12%.
The most likely scoreline for a HJK Helsinki win was 0-2 with a probability of 12.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (12.06%) and 1-2 (9.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.03%), while for a IFK Mariehamn win it was 1-0 (4.27%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that HJK Helsinki would win this match.