Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Honka win with a probability of 44.44%. A win for IFK Mariehamn had a probability of 30.01% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Honka win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.09%) and 0-2 (7.67%). The likeliest IFK Mariehamn win was 1-0 (8.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.13%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Honka would win this match.