Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Adelaide United win with a probability of 46.98%. A win for Melbourne Victory had a probability of 28.67% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Adelaide United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.3%) and 2-0 (7.63%). The likeliest Melbourne Victory win was 1-2 (7.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.43%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Adelaide United would win this match.
