Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Adelaide United win with a probability of 41.26%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 34.31% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Adelaide United win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.11%) and 2-0 (6.31%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 1-2 (7.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.34%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Adelaide United would win this match.
