Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wellington Phoenix win with a probability of 42.39%. A win for Macarthur had a probability of 32.83% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wellington Phoenix win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.76%) and 0-2 (6.75%). The likeliest Macarthur win was 2-1 (7.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.62%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood.
