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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Auckland FC win with a probability of 37.74%. A win for Macarthur had a probability of 36.93% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Auckland FC win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.39%) and 2-0 (6.05%). The likeliest Macarthur win was 0-1 (8.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.95%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Auckland FC would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Auckland FC | Draw | Macarthur |
37.74% ( 0.64) | 25.33% ( 0.25) | 36.93% ( -0.89) |
| Both teams to score 56.58% ( -0.89) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.82% ( -1.15) | 47.18% ( 1.15) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.58% ( -1.08) | 69.42% ( 1.08) |
| Auckland FC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.44% ( -0.18) | 24.56% ( 0.18) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.95% ( -0.25) | 59.05% ( 0.26) |
| Macarthur Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75% ( -1) | 25% ( 1.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.34% ( -1.41) | 59.66% ( 1.42) |
| Score Analysis |
| Auckland FC | Draw | Macarthur |
| 1-0 @ 8.62% ( 0.37) 2-1 @ 8.39% ( 0.07)2-0 @ 6.05% ( 0.23)3-1 @ 3.93% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 2.83% ( 0.09)3-2 @ 2.72% ( -0.07)4-1 @ 1.38% ( -0)4-0 @ 0.99% ( 0.03)4-2 @ 0.96% ( -0.03)Other @ 1.86% Total : 37.74% | 1-1 @ 11.95% ( 0.17) 0-0 @ 6.14% ( 0.29)2-2 @ 5.82% ( -0.12)3-3 @ 1.26% ( -0.07)Other @ 0.17% Total : 25.33% | 0-1 @ 8.51% ( 0.16) 1-2 @ 8.28% ( -0.13)0-2 @ 5.9% ( -0.06)1-3 @ 3.83% ( -0.17)0-3 @ 2.73% ( -0.11)2-3 @ 2.69% ( -0.14)1-4 @ 1.33% ( -0.1)0-4 @ 0.95% ( -0.07)2-4 @ 0.93% ( -0.08)Other @ 1.79% Total : 36.93% |
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