Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 50.21%. A win for Macarthur had a probability of 27.69% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.96%) and 2-0 (6.72%). The likeliest Macarthur win was 1-2 (6.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.68%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Melbourne Victory in this match.

Result
Melbourne Victory	Draw	Macarthur
50.21% ( 0.33)	22.1% ( 0.07)	27.69% ( -0.41)

Both teams to score 64.26% (

-0.62)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

64.55% (

-0.67)

35.44% (

0.66)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

42.51% (

-0.74)

57.48% (

0.73)

Melbourne Victory Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.53% (

-0.13)

14.46% (

0.13)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

57.57% (

-0.25)

42.42% (

0.24)

Macarthur Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.12% (

-0.61)

24.87% (

0.6)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.52% (

-0.85)

59.48% (

0.84)

Score Analysis

Melbourne Victory 50.21%

Macarthur 27.69%

Draw 22.1%

Melbourne Victory	Draw	Macarthur
2-1 @ 9.36% ( 0.06) 1-0 @ 6.96% ( 0.2) 2-0 @ 6.72% ( 0.16) 3-1 @ 6.03% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 4.33% ( 0.09) 3-2 @ 4.2% ( -0.06) 4-1 @ 2.92% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 2.1% ( 0.03) 4-2 @ 2.03% ( -0.04) 5-1 @ 1.13% ( -0.01) 4-3 @ 0.94% ( -0.04) Other @ 3.51% Total : 50.21%	1-1 @ 9.68% ( 0.11) 2-2 @ 6.51% ( -0.07) 0-0 @ 3.6% ( 0.12) 3-3 @ 1.95% ( -0.07) Other @ 0.37% Total : 22.1%	1-2 @ 6.73% ( -0.04) 0-1 @ 5.01% ( 0.08) 0-2 @ 3.48% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 3.12% ( -0.07) 2-3 @ 3.02% ( -0.09) 0-3 @ 1.62% ( -0.03) 1-4 @ 1.09% ( -0.05) 2-4 @ 1.05% ( -0.05) Other @ 2.57% Total : 27.69%