Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Adelaide United win with a probability of 47.05%. A win for Macarthur had a probability of 29.42% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Adelaide United win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.16%) and 0-2 (7.06%). The likeliest Macarthur win was 2-1 (7.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.8%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1% likelihood.
