Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wellington Phoenix win with a probability of 45.24%. A win for Macarthur had a probability of 31.02% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wellington Phoenix win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8%) and 2-0 (6.75%). The likeliest Macarthur win was 1-2 (7.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.88%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Wellington Phoenix would win this match.
