Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 57.57%. A win for Macarthur had a probability of 21.24% and a draw had a probability of 21.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.45%) and 1-0 (8.29%). The likeliest Macarthur win was 1-2 (5.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.65%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.
