SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Macarthur win with a probability of 46.74%. A win for Melbourne Victory had a probability of 29.69% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Macarthur win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.13%) and 2-0 (7.01%). The likeliest Melbourne Victory win was 1-2 (7.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.81%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Macarthur would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Macarthur | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
| 46.74% | 23.56% | 29.69% |
| Both teams to score 60.43% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.87% | 41.12% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.48% | 63.52% |
| Macarthur Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.15% | 17.84% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 51.4% | 48.6% |
| Melbourne Victory Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.56% | 26.44% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 38.39% | 61.61% |
| Score Analysis |
| Macarthur | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
| 2-1 @ 9.32% 1-0 @ 8.13% 2-0 @ 7.01% 3-1 @ 5.36% 3-0 @ 4.03% 3-2 @ 3.56% 4-1 @ 2.31% 4-0 @ 1.73% 4-2 @ 1.54% Other @ 3.76% Total : 46.74% | 1-1 @ 10.81% 2-2 @ 6.2% 0-0 @ 4.72% 3-3 @ 1.58% Other @ 0.25% Total : 23.56% | 1-2 @ 7.2% 0-1 @ 6.28% 0-2 @ 4.18% 1-3 @ 3.19% 2-3 @ 2.75% 0-3 @ 1.85% 1-4 @ 1.06% 2-4 @ 0.91% Other @ 2.28% Total : 29.69% |
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