Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 56.3%. A win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 21.85% and a draw had a probability of 21.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.84%) and 0-2 (8.65%). The likeliest Newcastle Jets win was 2-1 (5.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.08%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Melbourne City in this match.

Result
Newcastle Jets	Draw	Melbourne City
21.85% ( 1.63)	21.84% ( 0.35)	56.3% ( -1.99)

Both teams to score 58.41% (

1.31)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

59.79% (

0.56)

40.2% (

-0.56)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

37.42% (

0.58)

62.57% (

-0.58)

Newcastle Jets Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.04% (

1.86)

31.96% (

-1.86)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.58% (

2.07)

68.41% (

-2.07)

Melbourne City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.84% (

-0.43)

14.15% (

0.43)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

58.17% (

-0.85)

41.82% (

0.85)

Score Analysis

Newcastle Jets 21.85%

Melbourne City 56.3%

Draw 21.83%

Newcastle Jets	Draw	Melbourne City
2-1 @ 5.75% ( 0.34) 1-0 @ 5.16% ( 0.13) 2-0 @ 2.94% ( 0.22) 3-1 @ 2.19% ( 0.23) 3-2 @ 2.14% ( 0.2) 3-0 @ 1.12% ( 0.13) Other @ 2.55% Total : 21.85%	1-1 @ 10.08% ( 0.09) 2-2 @ 5.63% ( 0.25) 0-0 @ 4.52% ( -0.12) 3-3 @ 1.39% ( 0.11) Other @ 0.21% Total : 21.83%	1-2 @ 9.86% ( -0.06) 0-1 @ 8.84% ( -0.38) 0-2 @ 8.65% ( -0.51) 1-3 @ 6.43% ( -0.14) 0-3 @ 5.64% ( -0.43) 2-3 @ 3.67% ( 0.11) 1-4 @ 3.14% ( -0.12) 0-4 @ 2.76% ( -0.25) 2-4 @ 1.79% ( 0.02) 1-5 @ 1.23% ( -0.07) 0-5 @ 1.08% ( -0.12) Other @ 3.22% Total : 56.3%