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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 66.15%. A draw had a probability of 19.1% and a win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 14.74%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.84%) and 1-0 (9.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.96%), while for a Wellington Phoenix win it was 1-2 (4.18%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Melbourne City | Draw | Wellington Phoenix |
66.15% ( -1.36) | 19.12% ( 0.58) | 14.74% ( 0.77) |
| Both teams to score 53.87% ( 0) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.48% ( -1.01) | 39.52% ( 1.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.14% ( -1.07) | 61.86% ( 1.07) |
| Melbourne City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.88% ( -0.63) | 11.12% ( 0.63) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 64.45% ( -1.41) | 35.55% ( 1.41) |
| Wellington Phoenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.61% ( 0.43) | 39.39% ( -0.43) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.91% ( 0.4) | 76.09% ( -0.4) |
| Score Analysis |
| Melbourne City | Draw | Wellington Phoenix |
| 2-0 @ 10.56% ( -0.05) 2-1 @ 9.84% ( 0.07)1-0 @ 9.62% ( 0.2)3-0 @ 7.74% ( -0.25)3-1 @ 7.21% ( -0.14)4-0 @ 4.25% ( -0.25)4-1 @ 3.96% ( -0.19)3-2 @ 3.36% ( -0.03)5-0 @ 1.87% ( -0.16)4-2 @ 1.84% ( -0.06)5-1 @ 1.74% ( -0.13)Other @ 4.16% Total : 66.14% | 1-1 @ 8.96% ( 0.29) 2-2 @ 4.59% ( 0.08)0-0 @ 4.38% ( 0.2)3-3 @ 1.04% ( 0)Other @ 0.15% Total : 19.12% | 1-2 @ 4.18% ( 0.18) 0-1 @ 4.08% ( 0.24)0-2 @ 1.9% ( 0.13)2-3 @ 1.42% ( 0.04)1-3 @ 1.3% ( 0.07)Other @ 1.86% Total : 14.74% |
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